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ac-nh-turnip-prices
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Make the probability saner when FUDGE_FACTOR is in effect.

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master
Pi-Hsun Shih 5 years ago
parent b2aeb57707
commit 0cc1e80f66
1 changed files with 42 additions and 43 deletions
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33
js/predictions.js
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@ -67,6 +67,10 @@ function* multiply_generator_probability(generator, probability) {
}
}
function clamp(x, min, max) {
return Math.min(Math.max(x, min), max);
}
function range_length(range) {
return range[1] - range[0];
}
@ -115,13 +119,12 @@ function generate_individual_random_price(
// Given price is out of predicted range, so this is the wrong pattern
return 0;
}
if (given_prices[i] >= min_pred && given_prices[i] <= max_pred) {
// The value in the FUDGE_FACTOR range is ignored so that it don't give a probability 0.
// TODO: How to deal with probability when there's fudge factor?
// Clamp the value to be in range now so the probability won't be totally biased to fudged values.
const real_rate_range =
rate_range_from_given_and_base(given_prices[i], buy_price);
rate_range_from_given_and_base(clamp(given_prices[i], min_pred, max_pred), buy_price);
prob *= range_intersect_length(rate_range, real_rate_range) /
range_length(rate_range);
}
min_pred = given_prices[i];
max_pred = given_prices[i];
}
@ -304,15 +307,14 @@ function generate_decreasing_random_price(
// Given price is out of predicted range, so this is the wrong pattern
return 0;
}
if (given_prices[i] >= min_pred && given_prices[i] <= max_pred) {
// The value in the FUDGE_FACTOR range is ignored so that it don't give a probability 0.
// TODO: How to deal with probability when there's fudge factor?
// Clamp the value to be in range now so the probability won't be totally biased to fudged values.
const real_rate_range =
rate_range_from_given_and_base(given_prices[i], buy_price);
rate_range_from_given_and_base(clamp(given_prices[i], min_pred, max_pred), buy_price);
prob *= rate_pdf.range_limit(real_rate_range);
if (prob == 0) {
return 0;
}
}
min_pred = given_prices[i];
max_pred = given_prices[i];
}
@ -358,20 +360,18 @@ function generate_peak_price(
// Given price is out of predicted range, so this is the wrong pattern
return 0;
}
if (middle_price >= min_pred && middle_price <= max_pred) {
// The value in the FUDGE_FACTOR range is ignored so that it don't give a probability 0.
// TODO: How to deal with probability when there's fudge factor?
// Clamp the value to be in range now so the probability won't be totally biased to fudged values.
const real_rate_range =
rate_range_from_given_and_base(middle_price, buy_price);
rate_range_from_given_and_base(clamp(middle_price, min_pred, max_pred), buy_price);
prob *= range_intersect_length(rate_range, real_rate_range) /
range_length(rate_range);
if (prob == 0) {
return 0;
}
console.log(prob);
rate_range = range_intersect(rate_range, real_rate_range);
}
}
const left_price = given_prices[start];
const right_price = given_prices[start + 2];
@ -399,9 +399,9 @@ function generate_peak_price(
// Given price is out of predicted range, so this is the wrong pattern
return 0;
}
if (price >= min_pred && price <= max_pred) {
// The value in the FUDGE_FACTOR range is ignored so that it don't give a probability 0.
const rate2_range = rate_range_from_given_and_base(price + 1, buy_price);
// TODO: How to deal with probability when there's fudge factor?
// Clamp the value to be in range now so the probability won't be totally biased to fudged values.
const rate2_range = rate_range_from_given_and_base(clamp(price, min_pred, max_pred)+ 1, buy_price);
const F = (t, ZZ) => {
if (t <= 0) {
return 0;
@ -418,7 +418,6 @@ function generate_peak_price(
return 0;
}
}
}
// * Then generate the real predicted range.
// We're doing things in different order then how we calculate probability,

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